[Abstract] The combination of industry and finance is not just a popular trend for the development of large enterprises around the world, but also the requirements of China’s SOEs reform in the new era. The national defense and military industries are the key fields of China’s SOEs reform. Meanwhile, the advancement of SOEs reform also speeds up the integration of the stated-owned military enterprises. In order to accelerate the combination of industry and finance for military groups, we should establish diversified financing platforms, create innovative financing models, enlarging financing channels, introducing strategic investing institutions and adopt other necessary measures.
[Abstract] The bay-based economy can be seen as an important highlight of the international economy and all the famous bay-based economies have the following characteristics. Firstly, there must be an open economic structure and efficient resource allocation. Secondly, the area has strong ability of innovation, livable living environment and inclusive culture and atmosphere. Lastly, the bay area has solid assembling function and significant spillover effect. The construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area should learn from the features described above, the responsible departments should demarcate the bay area scientifically and make hierarchical plan for the development in the bay area. Furthermore, they should guide industries in this area to avoid homogenous competition, create a high quality living environment and come up with innovative mechanism and model of cooperative development.
[Abstract] The China-Japan Relations have entered into an unprecedented New Normal due to a number of factors. For instance, the historical changes between China and Japan’s national strengths, the strategic adjustment of the US and the change in the strategic pattern of East Asia, as well as the ever-increasing antagonism demonstrated by Japan’s strategies and policies toward China. In the future, China should establish a new type of relations with Japan under the new normal with a long-term strategic perspective. Besides, China should seek for more common interest, strengthen regional cooperation, improve mutual political trust and security guarantee while maintaining good multilateral relations between China, the US and Japan. Lastly, China should try to establish a new relationship between big nations in East Asia, according to the new normal and regional cooperation and integration.
[Abstract]Recently, the excessive expansion of the financial industry has generated considerable criticism. The main reason for such kind of expansion is that the asset management industry has led many overlapped transactions among financial institutions. Besides, the banking organizations are the major source of asset management industry. The financial support for companies, especially small and micro companies is rather limited. The lack of standardized regulatory rules has seriously deterred healthy development of the asset management industry. In response, the authorities should establish an effective mechanism to isolate transactions between financial institutions. Apart from that, they should have a unified framework in place regulating the asset management industry, with the supervisor of securities industry acting as the core of this framework.
[Abstract]In spite of the peaceful environment and economic downturn, the global military industry has kept moving ahead. The major military powers have taken measures to enhance their competitiveness in the military industries and new feature and trend have emerged, such as professionalism, large scale of restructuring, asset-backed securitization and the integration of military and civilian technology. Having considered the successful experience of the US and Europe, China should in the short-term focus on asset integration within military groups. In the future, China’s military industry could create international military giant through inter-group asset integration. At the same time, the industry should accelerate the securitization of military asset, grasp new international opportunities and expand military trade to strengthen national influences.
[Abstract]In 2016, the RMB showed a sign of depreciation and thus, how will the trend develop in 2017 has attracted wide attention. By quantitative analysis of the exchange rate model and international experience, this paper reached the following conclusions. Firstly, RMB has no obvious pressure to either depreciate or appreciate because the current exchange rate between the USD (US Dollar) and RMB (1:6.9) is very close to the equilibrium level. Secondly, the depreciation of RMB in 2016 made great impact on pushing up domestic prices and thus, further depreciation is unnecessary. Furthermore, China should refuse firmly America’s request for RMB appreciation as such kind of appreciation will not be able to eliminate China’s massive trade surplus with the US. Lastly, the USD-RMB exchange rate should be maintained at the level of 1:6.91 in 2017, floating in the range of 3 percent. Attention should be paid to the USD exchange rate to maintain stabilization of RMB’s real effective exchange rate.
[Abstract]Some of the US President Trump’s understandings of China’s economy come from his economic advisor, Peter Navarro. As the Director of the White House National Trade Council (NTC), Peter Navarro plays a very important role in future China-US economic and trade relations. The book “Death by China” summarized Navarro’s major viewpoints on China. During his presidential campaign, Trump accused China of being a current manipulator and proposed a 45% tariff, all these kinds of arguments can be found in this book. Moreover, the book gives systemic introduction of the measures that can be taken to attack China. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the book and get ready for rainy days if we want to understand the economic policies toward China, which might be adopted by Trump.
[Abstract]Currently, China’s foreign trade is experiencing a downturn and the traditional growth model of foreign trade is no longer sustainable. Meanwhile, some new momentum promoting growth of foreign trade has started to emerge. Several policy recommendations are made to promote steady growth of foreign trade. Firstly, the authorities should establish a new management mechanism to suit the new trade model of cross-border e-commerce. Secondly, the government should expand the scale of services and trade and facilitate growth through further reform and opening-up. Last but not least, the Belt and Road initiative can be used as a starting point to enhance integration and development of trade and investment, and ultimately to strengthen new momentum for China’s foreign trade.
[Abstract]In 2017, the world economy has become very complicated and changeable, together with the further involvement of geopolitical and geo-economic patterns, we are expecting a more unbalanced, uncertain and unpredictable world. In spite of the bump and tangle, nonetheless, the world economy will move forward with the following new characteristics and trend. Firstly, the coexistence between low economic and trade growth, between low interest rate and inflation. Secondly, the appreciation of the US Dollar (USD) will coexist with the depreciation of other non-USD currencies, the coexistence between high level of debt and leverage, and also the higher level of trade standard will coexist with irrational trade protectionism. Last but not least, the coexistence between a new round of structural reform and industrial transfer, and between the decrease in population in absolute poverty and the increase in population in relative poverty.
[Abstract]In order to promote supply-side structural reform, especially cut excess steel capacity, Baosteel Group has tried valiantly in many aspects based on its own advantages, like eliminating outdated production capacity, optimizing production layout, improving weak links, reducing costs, assets disposal, debt repayment and personal re-settlement. The group has accumulated a lot of good experience but also encountered some problems. The following suggestions have been made according to the filed investigation at Baosteel group. First of all, the group should play a leading role in cutting excess capacity. Also, a fair and competitive market should be created to allow the market to cut excess capacity. Secondly, the group can explore the reorganization of high-quality assets to solve its financing problem. Thirdly, to deal with the personnel replacement properly, the group needs to strengthen the leadership of the CPC (Communist Party of China), let the enterprise, government, social organizations and media to work together and come up with practical solutions to promote re-employment. Lastly, the group should pay attention to the connectivity and supporting le of different policies.
[Abstract]Recently, Europe has become the hardest-hit area of international terrorism, for instance, the rising threats of terrorism, the co-existence of traditional ethnic separatist terrorism and Islamic terrorism. Moreover, localized terrorism and newly emerged cyber terrorism have also become the new feature of international terrorism. In the future, terrorism is likely to remain in Europe for quite a long time due to various factors, such as the non-integration and diversity in ethnic groups, cultures, religions, the uncertainties and social conflicts intensified by financial crises, and the global anti-terrorism campaign. Therefore, Europe’s battle against terrorism has a long way to go.
[Abstract]China-Singapore relationship has sunk to low ebb due to such factors as South China Seas issue, the seizure of Singapore’s military vehicles in Hong Kong and the battle of public opinion. America’s plan to withdraw from TPP has interrupted the existing development strategy of Singapore. Apart from that, the current economic downturn in Singapore and China’s acceleration in the construction projects in Gwadar Port and Melaka Gateway made Singapore under great pressure to actively improve its relationship with China and engage deeply in the Belt and Road initiative. China welcomes Singapore’s participation in the initiative and is willing to work with Singapore to properly handle issues which have affected China-Singapore relationship recently. Hopefully, Singapore can become an important fulcrum of the initiative. In order to achieve that, China and Singapore should draw experience from the “China-Singapore: Chongqing Connectivity Initiative(CCI)” and promote the “soft connectivity” model of the Belt and Road initiative so as to advance the construction of the initiative continuously.
【Abstract】 Founded in 1962, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) is one of the largest think tanks in Germany and Europe. As an independent academic think tank, its bottom-up policy recommendation formation mechanism, research-focused organizational structure and internal management model and its approaches for comprehensive international exchanges have provided useful experience for the development of China’s think tanks.
【Abstract】 According to the general requirements of the supply-side structural reform and the characteristics of the industry, the supply-side structural reform of the oil and gas industry need to be moved forward in six aspects during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. First, properly manage the excess capacity in oil refining and exploration; second, effectively reduce the costs of oil and gas production and utilization; third, carry out market-oriented reform of the oil and gas industrial chain in an orderly manner; fourth, strengthen the building of natural gas pipeline network and storage depots; fifth, increase quality and efficiency and lower costs through scientific and technological innovation; and sixth, encourage oilfield service companies to go global and step up cooperation with overseas energy and mining companies.
【Abstract】 The Paris Agreement is a milestone in global climate governance. It establishes an emission reduction system that combines a “bottom-up” target-setting mechanism and a “top-down” rule-setting mechanism, and sets up an updating mechanism that takes stock of the overall progress of global action every five years. It introduces the “1.5 ℃ temperature control target” as one of the climate control goals in an unprecedented effort to manage climate change, and makes the reasonable use of climate funds as one of the three major goals of the Paris Agreement. This said however, there is still something to be desired. For instance, it is difficult to have developed countries fulfill their funding obligations as their emission-reduction responsibility has been watered down, and the problem of how to promote coordinated global action is yet to be resolved.
【Abstract】The goal of the supply-side structural reform in the electric power industry is to establish a fair, open, efficient and transparent market system. There is still some controversy over the reform policy and more specific rules need to be set. There is too much administrative intervention in some areas and barriers between provinces still exist. Therefore, there is a need to speed up the supply-side structural reform in the electric power industry during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. The following is suggested: improve the top-level design and break up barriers between provinces; sum up the experience of pilot projects and adjust and work out more detailed reform plans in a more timely fashion to ensure that the relevant stakeholders can play within the market framework; speed up the building of the spot market to form a market pricing system; speed up reform of the electricity distribution and sales system and further liberalize the electricity distribution market; establish an effective exit mechanism for surplus electric capacity to prevent systemic risks; properly manage cross-subsidization and the transitional dual-price-track system to ensure electricity supplies for all citizens; and improve the credit environment of the electricity market to build a more sound credit system of market players.
【Abstract】The coal industry occupies an important place in China’s energy production and consumption structure. To reduce its excess production capacity and promote the transformation and upgrading of coal enterprises is a major task of the coal industry both at present and for a period of time to come. To reduce the excess capacity of the industry, we need to strictly control the newly increased capacity, eliminate outdated capacity in an orderly manner, promote the exit of excess capacity, make proper arrangements for redundant workers and strengthen policy support. At the same time, it is important to promote efficient use of clean coal, support the industry’s effort to develop green and circular economy, expand the use of smart technology and achieve diversified development.
【Abstract】 To move industries upward to the medium-to-high-end of the industrial chain, the government needs to set the right targets, adjust macroeconomic management methods and change policy support modalities and priorities, with a view to creating a sound market competition environment. More attention should be given to reducing operation costs of enterprises, providing public services, regulating market competition and guiding the industries to be more demand-oriented, so as to form a more reasonable industrial layout and build an industrial system that is marked by regional complementarity and coordinated development.
【Abstract】 The current world economy is again at a critical juncture, facing such problems as sluggish economic recovery, the waning of growth momentum generated by the past scientific and technological advancement and slowdown in trade and investment growth. Against this backdrop, to enhance industrial cooperation between China and the EU, two major economies in the world, will not only improve their respective welfare. It will also, by boosting production on the supply side, push the world economy to shift more quickly from the old growth drivers to the new ones. This is of great importance for building an innovative, dynamic, interconnected and inclusive world economy.
【Abstract】 To promote the establishment of a global cyberspace governance system, it is suggested that China establish and improve the strategic layout of national cyberspace, accelerate implementation of the strategy of “enhancing national strength through the Internet”, actively carry out “digital diplomacy” and clearly put forward China’s “multi-stakeholder” governance model, and vigorously develop the “digital economy” to enhance China’s influence in cyberspace. We need to build a new type of interdependent cyberspace relationship with the US, and establish an independently controllable cyberspace system to strengthen China’s information security. We also need to build a new global “digital economy” governance system to lead the development of a new global economy, establish and optimize a new “digital economy” system to promote reform of the administrative system, build a unified social credit system to create a better environment for the development of the digital economy, and take the initiative to set the cyberspace governance agenda to promote the establishment of a new global cyberspace governance system.
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