[Abstract] Although there is no reliable and generally recognized accurate method for calculating the scale of international hot money flows, the renewed influx of international hot money into China since last year is already an indisputable fact. Considering the international background, the unprecedented global zero interest rate policy has led to unprecedented abundance of liquidity; domestically, China has formed the basic conditions for attracting hot money inflows. Sound economic growth and objective exchange rate differences, interest margins and differences in asset prices are all important factors. International hot money is entering China in a noncompliant manner and through current accounts, capital accounts, underground banking and other channels and may potentially impact China’s real economy and financial sector, so we need to keep a close eye on this.
[Abstract] Accelerating the development of social undertakings is not only an important way to expand consumption and improve people's livelihood, but also the basis and guarantee for building a harmonious society. Due to ideas, institutional mechanisms, government investment and other factors, China’s social undertakings currently are a weak link of economic and social development. In order to implement the scientific outlook on development and promote comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable economic and social development, we shall speed up the development of social undertakings through measures such as bringing forth new ideas, reforming and improving the institutional mechanisms of social undertakings, increasing government investment and improving the structure of fiscal expenditure.
[Abstract] Urbanization has begun to show its strategic importantance since the outbreak of the financial crisis, hopefully, it can become a breakthrough for expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure and leading to a stale and quick growth. Nonetheless, the inadequate comprehensive capability of cities has restrained urbanization development. To cope with this problem, we need to enhance the resources and environment capacity, economic capacity and social bearing capacity with multi-pronged approach, improve the cities’ “software” and “hardware”. By doing so, we will be able to break through the bottleneck of urbanization and let urbanization play its strategic role effectively.
[Abstract] The internet of things is expected to become a new growth point driving economic development. But currently it faces obstacles such as immature technology standards, difficulties in industrial application of technologies and potential hazards. Development of China’s internet of things also faces inadequate investment in research and development by enterprises, basic reliance on the export of key components, low degree of industrial application of technologies and other problems. Regarding this, we shall promote rapid development of China’s internet of things industry by focusing on improving the capacity for independent innovation, step up the research and development of key technologies, expand the breadth of industrial application of internet of things technologies and accelerate the speed of independent innovation and industrialization.
[Abstract]Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis triggered by “sub-prime” and mainly affecting private financial institutions, governments around the world have been borrowing to relieve the crisis, leading to a surge in global sovereign debt, which will hit 49 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of 2010. 80% of the new debts are attributed to developed countries. Currently we shall be particularly vigilant about the evolution of the debt crisis of private institutions around the world into a government debt crisis mainly involving developed countries after 2010. The three main ways in which sovereign debt crisis is caused: 1. a country defaults on its debt due to insolvency and the consequences are felt worldwide through the chain of debt, as in the case of Dubai debt crisis; 2. a large country’s debt rating is downgraded; 3. the debt burden is offset through currency devaluation. China is the largest holder of U.S. sovereign debt and has every reason to fear the occurrence of a debt crisis. We shall be very vigilant and respond actively in this regard.
[Abstract] While promoting rapid global economic growth, industrial civilization also has created a series of serious resource and environmental problems. As a big developing country, China has encountered serious resource and environmental bottlenecks while experiencing high-speed growth over 30 years of reform and opening up. Transforming the mode of economic development and vigorously developing a green economy is an inevitable choice for breaking resource and environmental bottlenecks. Therefore, we shall change our notion of finance and establish and improve a green financial and taxation policy system to ensure sustainable economic and social development in China.
[Abstract] China’s economy currently is encountered from both sides by inflation and RMB appreciation with monetary policy in a predicament. Properly addressing the issue of RMB appreciation can help make China’s economy restructuring successful. To cope with the converging attack from inflation and RMB appreciation, firstly, we shall stick to the principles of “activeness, controllability and gradualness” in appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and accelerate the reform of factor prices; secondly, we shall bring into play the role of market mechanism to appropriately increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate; thirdly, we shall capitalize on opportunities occasioned by excess liquidity to expand and strengthen China’s capital market by actively “absorbing” excess liquidity; last but not least, we shall bring into play the role of Shanghai and Hong Kong as international financial centers.
[Abstract]The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) pointed out that foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 39% in 2009, from 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars in 2008 to 1.04 trillion U.S. dollars. Almost all developed, developing and transition economies have experienced significant decline in FDI inflow. Although the world economy bottomed out in the third quarter of 2009, global FDI didn’t rebound in the second half of the year as expected. It is predicted that global FDI will see moderate recovery in 2010.
[Abstract] Over the past 30 years, the world steel industry has been accelerating the process of globalization and the domestic steel industry in China has also seen significant changes in its development. But the concept of China's steel industry hasn't yet kept pace with the times and the bottleneck restricting sustainable development is becoming more and more apparent. There is an urgent need to reshape the development path of the steel industry in future and earnestly step up efforts on reform and opening up on the road toward marketization.
[Abstract] Although the price index has just gone positive, inflation expectations have been rising. Strengthening the management of inflation expectations is an important task in this year’s macroeconomic control. To manage inflation expectations appropriately, we shall accurately grasp the policy orientation and continue to maintain the overall tone of moderate looseness; put into practice the principle of “encouraging the growth of some sectors while discouraging the expansion of others” and seek balance between adjustment of the credit scale and optimization of the credit structure; consider the adoption of an exit strategy in due course and implement policy adjustment and shift step by step; strengthen the guidance of public opinion to avoid "herd behavior" caused by non-rational inflation expectations; resolve the pressure alleviate the pressure from rising prices and asset price inflation through comprehensive use of other economic policies.
[Abstract] As technology evolves, the Internet has made a transition from fixed broadband to wireless broadband. Although 3G technology has achieved some wireless Internet applications, it still has some limitations in supporting broadband wireless applications. Wimax technology just makes up the deficiency of 3G to become an effective supplement to 3G and has achieved large-scale commercial use all over the world. Our research concluded that, we think that the technology provides support for achieving Internet access at all levels of China’s social and economic life. We suggest relevant departments pay close attention to the technical characteristics and the application prospect of Wimax.
[Abstract] The trend of international crude oil prices in 2010 will continue to be affected by global economic recovery, oil demand, supply and stockpile, trend of the U.S. dollar, speculation, geopolitics and other factors. It is predicted that international oil prices will keep on rising amid fluctuations in 2010 and the range of fluctuations will be roughly 70-90 U.S. dollars / barrel. To cope with fluctuations in international oil prices, China shall be more involved in the determination of international oil prices. The key is to establish and improve a strategic oil reserve system and oil financial strategy system.
[Abstract] Our suggestion on the basic orientation of the macroeconomic policy for 2010 is: continue to maintain the overall tone of a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy while ensuring steady growth, and improve policy relevance and flexibility according to the new situation. The fiscal policy should stabilize the size of the deficit, reduce the deficit ratio and concentrate on adjusting the structure of expenditures. The monetary policy should keep the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) at around 16%, keep the scale of newly extended credit at around eight trillion Yuan, appropriately lower the proportion of medium and long-term loans and increase the proportion of short-term loans. Improve the balance between the total demand and supply of society, promote transformation of development modes and advance the development of public welfare undertakings through the adjustment of macroeconomic policies.
[Abstract]Benefiting from the recovery of external demand and economic stimulus measures implemented by the Japanese government, Japan is gradually moving out of economic recession and achieving growth. But with the effects
[Abstract] The U.S. personal savings rate is growing sharply, since the outbreak of the financial crisis and rose to 6%—the highest in nearly a decade in May 2009. Therefore, some economists and institutions abroad
[Abstract] Russia's national development strategy is to reduce the cost of national security based on nuclear deterrence; build an efficient and strong government compatible with the market growth phase on the basis
[Abstract] Based on the future economic trends, the EU economy will continue to recover, but its growth speed will be very slow. The European Central Bank will continue to adhere to a loose monetary policy,
[Abstract] Along with the increasingly huge size of China's foreign exchange reserve and growing resource and environmental constraints, China’s economy will experience a strategic change from importing in the first 30 years
[Abstract] Measures shall be taken to increase the proportion of residents’ income in gross domestic product (GDP) and raise residents’ consumption rate. We shall strive to increase the proportion of residents’ income
[Abstract] In 2009, the overall economy improved steadily, the basis was continuously consolidated and it was predicted that the goal of maintaining growth could be achieved. Under the influence of factors including a bumper
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