[Abstract]In early April, Alessandro Nicita from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Marcelo Olarreaga from the European Research Center for Economic Policy Research, and Peri da Silva from the Kansas State University jointly wrote the article, pointing out that there are more and more signs indicating that the multilateral trading system may not be able to avoid the outbreak of a trade war. If all countries shift from cooperative tariffs within the World Trade Organization (WTO) to non-cooperative tariffs outside of the WTO, the trade war will make all countries to build up tariff barrier, limit the entry of foreign goods into domestic markets, and completely rely on their domestic market. All these will lead to an increase of 32% in global average export tariff and consequently, no one will be able to win the trade war.
[Abstract]Recently, China Center for International Economic Exchanges held the 106th Monthly Economic Talk with the theme of “Analysis of the Chinese and International Economy in the First Quarter.” Xu Changchun, researcher of the Strategic Research Department at CCIEE, and Zhang Huanbo, Researcher of the Economic Research Department delivered speeches. The meeting was chaired by Xu Hongcai, Deputy Chief Economist of CCIEE.
[Abstract]It has been 40 years since China started its reform and opening-up in 1978. 40 years seems to be very short, but the rapid growth for 40 consecutive years is actually very long. China has inadvertently created a miracle in the history of world development: a huge economy with a population of more than 1 billion people (the total GDP ranks second in the world, and accounts for about 15% of the world’s GDP) has maintained growth for 40 consecutive years and has reached an annual average growth 9.5%. More than 1 billion people have been lifted out of poverty and started to enjoy a fairly comfortable life. The average life expectancy of the population has increased from 67.9 years in 1981 to 76.5 years in 2016! How did such a development miracle happen? What did the Chinese economy do right? Leaders and economists from many countries have asked the same question.
[Abstract]On April 9, Peter Navarro, director of the White House National Trade Council published an article in the Financial Times, claiming that 3.4 million jobs were lost between 2001 and 2015 due to the trade deficit with China. This viewpoint comes from the research reports of many American think tanks and has been widely quoted by U.S. officials. In particular, Robert Scott from the Economic Policy Institute, issued many influential papers. However, Scott’s research method is obviously wrong, and hence the conclusions failed to withstand close scrutiny.
[Abstract]After General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to explore the construction of Free Trade Ports (hereinafter referred to as Freeport) in the 19th National Congress report in October 2017, many cities and regions have started to make plans for the construction and submitted them to relevant national departments, especially the cities or provinces whose plan of establishing a free trade pilot area have already been approved. Nonetheless, there are still some problems in the plan and construction of the free ports. For example, the different understanding of the concepts and connotations, administrative restriction, lack of policy innovation, and inaccurate positioning of functions and industries. In order to promote the construction of the free port with Chinese characteristics, we should adhere to the principles of “serving one goal, breaking four imprisonments, handling five relationships, and strengthening the six major constructions.”
[Abstract]Recently, the U.S. President Trump signed the “U.S.-Taiwan Travel Act,” which has undermined the political foundation of the U.S.-China relations, complicated the Taiwan Strait situation and increased the risk of the cross-strait relations. This is another example of America’s pro-Taiwan right-wing forces promote the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, following the telephone conversation between Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, and the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would require the U.S. Navy warships to conduct port calls in Taiwan. Nonetheless, everything has two sides. This combination of the complex internal and external factors has changed the public opinion in Taiwan. As mainland China’s “anti-independence and promotion of reunification” start to show the positive effect, and Tsai Ing-wen is likely to be re-elected, the Taiwan authorities may propose a “new consensus” to improve the cross-strait relations in order to minimize risks.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE held the 105th Monthly Economy Talk under the theme of Interpretation of Government Work Report, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Research Office of the State Council, and Wang Huiyao, State Councilor, and Chairman of Center for China and Globalization, delivered their speeches. Zhang Xiaoqiang, Executive Vice Chairman of CCIEE, presided over the meeting.
[Abstract]The trade relationship among China, Japan, and Korea has come out of gloom and shown a clear sign of improvement. How can we maintain this kind of momentum? What are the negative factors? How can we make breakthroughs? In order to answer those questions, the research team of “China-Japan-Korea Economic Development and Cooperation in the New Era” held a seminar on March 6th, 2018, at which renowned experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Foreign Affairs University, and China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations expressed their opinions.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held the 104th Monthly Economy Talk under the theme of “Current U.S.-China Relations.” Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of CCIEE, chaired the meeting. Jin Canrong, Professor and Vice President of the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, Ruan Zongze, Executive Vice President of the China Institute of International Studies, Lv Xiang, a researcher of the Institute of America Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and researchers of the U.S.-China research project at CCIEE also expressed their opinions on the U.S.-China relations.
[Abstract]On February 3, the postdoctoral stations of CCIEE and the National Information Center jointly organized a seminar, discussing on how can we implement Xi Jinping’s socialist theories with Chinese characteristics in the new era and the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, and how to predict the major trends of the world.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held the 103rd “Monthly Economic Talk” with the theme of Economic Review of 2017 and outlook in 2018. Liu Xiangdong, Deputy Director of the Economic Research Department of CCIEE, and Mei Guanqun, Associated Researcher of the Strategic Research Department delivered their speeches respectively. The meeting was chaired by Li Deshui, Deputy Director of CCIEE Academic Committee and former Director of National Bureau of Statistics.
[Abstract]On December 22, 2017, the US President Trump has signed a 1.5 trillion USD tax reform bill. This reform is the largest tax reform since the Reagan administration’s tax reform in 1986 and has aroused widespread concern. All countries are discussing the spillover effect of the tax reform and a possible wave of tax reduction around the world. The author believes that it will take a long time to see the actual effect of the tax reform since the United States has not conducted such a drastic tax reform for 30 years. However, we should gain a better understanding of the US political parties, as the most prominent factor in the tax reform.
[Abstract] The speeches delivered by General Secretary Xi Jinping since the 18th CPC National Congress has elaborated systematically the new ideas and new strategies for China’s social development, which can be seen as an original and systematic summary of China’s experience in building the socialism with Chinese characteristics. It is not only in line with the party’s previous innovation in social theory, but also advancing with the times, forming a number of innovations in social theory.
[Abstract]On December 17, 2017, the Trump administration released its first national security strategy report since Trump took office, which will guide the US diplomatic security policy for some time. The report starts with the “America first” and considers the United States is in danger. Eternally, the US is faced with threats from China, Russia, rogue states (North Korea, Iran), extremist Islamic groups and other terrorist groups. Domestically, the criminal groups endanger community safety across the US. Plus, the unfair trade has weakened the US economy and made it a vulnerable target. The top priority of the incumbent government is to make the US more prosperous, secure and powerful. The report takes an extreme position toward China, and economic competition has become the focus of the report.
[Abstract]At the 102nd CCIEE Monthly Economic Talk, CCIEE released the research findings of 2017 China’s sustainable development index system and the ranking of cities and provinces in terms of sustainable development. The meeting participants discussed such issues as the assessment, practice, management and policies of China’s sustainable development.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE held the 100th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Interpretation of the Report of the 19th CPC Central Committee National Congress: Analysis of Chinese and International Economy. Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of CCIEE, and Xu Hongcai, Deputy Chief Economist of CCIEE delivered their speeches respectively. The meeting was presided over by Li Deshui, Deputy Director of the CCIEE Academic Committee and former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics.
[Abstract] Over recent years, many US think tanks have conducted much more researches on the investments made by Chinese enterprises in the US. Rhodium Group, a US-based think tank has followed the investment made by Chinese enterprises in the US since 1995. In March 2015, together with the National Committee on United States-China Relations, they jointly launched the report: New Neighbors: Chinese Investment in the United States by Congressional District, which caused wide public concern in the US. In 2017, the report was updated by the two organizations. The mainstream US think tanks usually prejudice Chinese enterprises, this report, however, is relatively rational and objective.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE hold the 99th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of The next Generation of Trade: E-International Trade. Long Yongtu, former Vice Minister of the former Ministry of Economic and Trade Cooperation, Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of CCIEE and Xu Ping, President of Henan Bonded Zone Group delivered their presentations respectively.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE hold the 98th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Discussions on the “Land Law” Amendment. The experts had an in-depth discussion on the relationship between the economic reform and the amendment of the “Land Law”. They believe that the amendment of the “Land Law” should help to reform and transfer China’s economy.
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