【Abstract】 Recently, CCIEE held the 90th Monthly Economic Talk on how to solve the “off real to virtual” problem in China’s economic development. Speakers had an in-depth analysis of the symptoms and causes of the problem and discussed ways to solve it. They pointed out that the root of the problem lies in the real economy’s falling rate of returns and the virtual economy’s continued rise of returns. In China’s case, it should deal with the problem by reducing macro tax burden, reforming the finance and tax system, creating new financial instruments and deepening reforms in the monopoly sectors.
【Abstract】 Based on the global trend of economic thoughts and Trump’s actions before and after the presidential election, Trump’s economic governance philosophy can be summarized as “one focus, two isms and three directions”. The focus is to improve employment and welfare of the common people. The two isms are the implementation of the “new” liberalism at home and the “new” protectionism in the international arena. When it comes to global economic governance, he will move in three directions: first, promote new rules through a single bilateral arrangement or a number of small-group multilateral arrangements instead of general multilateral arrangements; second, start a trade war by accusing China of manipulating the exchange rate; and third, give up climate commitments as the first step to reduce the US’ global responsibility as much as possible.
【Abstract】 Recently, CCIEE held the 89th Monthly Economic Talk on the topic of “China-US Relationship in the Future -- Challenges and Opportunities”. Participants pointed out that the election of Trump as president of the United States has reflected many problems in the US society including deglobalization and serious social divides. Trump announced that he will list China as a currency manipulator and raise tariffs. This and other policies he will take will bring many uncertainties into China-US relations. However, it is believed that the direction of China-US cooperation will remain unchanged. Looking ahead, the two countries need to reduce strategic distrust, increase mutual trust, strengthen communications and coordination, and increase policy efficiency. They also need to enhance exchanges and cooperation and bring people closer together. Trump needs to realize a change of role to break down isolationism, exclusionism, populism and interventionism, etc.
【Abstract】Recently, the research team on China-EU economic and trade relations in the next decade organized an experts’ meeting, at which experts from NDRC, Ministry of Commerce, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations held discussions on Brexit. They believed that Brexit has added uncertainties to EU’s future and made it more prone to division. With irrational nationalism gaining strength in Europe, the EU is stepping up establishment of the external border system and independent defense system. Meanwhile, there is a huge scope for China’s financial cooperation with the UK. In promoting the internationalization of yuan, we need to take differentiated strategies and tactics with the UK and the EU. Moreover, the momentum for China-EU and China-UK cooperation in the third-party markets is building up.
【Abstract】Since the People’s Bank of China’s announcement on 11 August 2015 to improve the central parity rate of yuan against the US dollar, yuan has been depreciating. This is because mounting downward pressure on China’s economy, slump in foreign trade, rapid growth in overseas investment and consumption, increased capital outflow pressure, expectation of interest rate hike in the US and some political signals sent out by Trump have brought pressure on the RMB. In response, we need to take a holistic approach and promote the development of the real economy by taking effective measures on both the supply and demand sides and carrying out reform in the financial system. It is also important to seize the opportunity presented by the yuan’s inclusion into the SDR to expand the use of yuan overseas, and use the “Belt and Road” initiative to guide outward investment to maintain the basic stability of yuan.
【Abstract】 Globalization has intensified disparities among and within nations. Trump’s election as the US president has stunned the world. It has fueled populism in the United States and prompted some developed Western countries to join the “deglobalization” trend. The United States is very likely to become a key promoter of “deglobalization” and that will bring with it various consequences. “Deglobalization” will add new uncertainties to the already troubled world economy and cause the geopolitical environment to change. Its immediate impact on China, especially its implications in the medium and long terms, deserve our close attention.
【Abstract】Recently, CCIEE held the 88th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Analysis of the Third Quarter’s Economics. Guests present at the talk noted that during the third quarter, world economy continued the situation of the first and second quarters that many problems remained while several new problems emerged, which gave a pessimistic sign for vigorous recovery in a short period of time. So far the slump in China’s economy was under control, but at the same time China faced a number of external uncertainties as well as domestic regional risks. We should promote the construction of Belt and Road and coordination of international macroeconomic policies through China Power and China Planning, and economic innovation transformation and stable economic growth by continuously adopting effective fiscal and currency policies and accelerating supply-side structural reform.
【Abstract】Recently, CCIEE, Bruegel, Chatham House and The Chinese University of Hong Kong co-held the Prospects of China-EU Economic and Trade Relations seminar in Beijing, on which experts had discussion on Brexit. Experts and pundits present at the seminar said that trade agreement and labor force flow would be the key issues for discussion; it would take long to prepare the Brexit negotiation; Brexit might cast great impact on EU, but not break up it; Brexit generates a little of impact on China, but there are some uncertainties; Brexit corroborates the rise of deglobalization, protectionism and populism.
【Abstract】Recently, CCIEE, Bruegel, Chatham House and The Chinese University of Hong Kong co-held the Prospects of China-EU Economic and Trade Relations seminar in Beijing. Experts and pundits present at the seminar said that China-EU economic and trade relations maintained good momentum and had spatial room for development. In the future, both sides should vigorously promote the integration of Belt and Road initiative and Juncker Plan, deepen bilateral economic and trading investment and boost cooperation in high-end manufacturing, energy and environment, responses to climate change, innovation and high tech, financial service among others.
【Abstract】Recently, postdoctoral station of CCIEE held the 19th Expert Meeting on Great Global Events and Seminar of Analysis of Important Global Affairs under the theme of new changes in world economy. Experts and pundits present noted that from 2016 to 2017, there were four major changes in world economy that required special attention: first, global quantitative easing is far from stopping; second, international crude oil market is gradually approaching a balance; third, emerging economies show a silver lining of recovery; last but not least, economics globalization and regionalization go against the tide of the trend.
【Abstract】At the beginning of reform and opening up when China was in a passive situation of hurrying reaching the world and obtaining international acknowledgment, scattered intellectual property (IP) administrative management mode with special characters was inaugurated based on charging departments to build up the IP protection system as soon as possible. At present, IP, both domestic and overseas, undergoes fundamental shifts. IP protection is gradually transforming into the one mainly supported by legal protection with a overall perspective that IP administrative management should directly not only faces innovation, management, protection, application and service, but also international trade and engagement in international policy making. Obsolete management system will certainly stifle innovation and great chance. Therefore, it is suggested that the Ministry of Commerce lead the functional integration of State Intellectual Property Office, State Administration for Industry and Commerce and State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television (IP Bureau) to establish the real IP administration of great power, coordinating and implementing China’s strategies on IP and innovation-driven development.
【Abstract】Recently, CCIEE held the 87th Monthly Economic Talk with the theme of Thoughts of Decapacity and Corresponding Solutions. Guest Speakers addressed the questions raised by the international community from the perspectives of overcapacity, its history and corresponding solutions, and put forward 18 objective comments on China’s overcapacity. They pointed out that low industrial standard and scattered capacity were main reasons for overcapacity in steel industry. To address steel overcapacity and lift it out of the predicament and accomplish industrial upgrade, lessons should be drawn from the past practice, both domestic and overseas, along with measures such as overall planning, multi-policy, and improvement of industrial concentration, standard, quality and brand influence.
[Abstract] During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period or even a longer period of time to come, China will enter a new phase of opening up featuring all-round, deep-going and high-level opening and synchronized internal and external opening. New trends and features of opening up have emerged, and more are expected in the future. In opening up, the focus of China’s FTA strategy will shift from incremental establishment of isolated free trade zones or bilateral free trade areas to building a FTA/FTZ network that has a global perspective, gives priority to China’s neighborhood and is connected with to the construction of the “Belt and Road”. China’s southeastern coast used to be the frontier of opening up. In the future, we will strive to foster a new pattern of all-round opening up that features coordinated internal and external opening on land and on sea, and accelerated opening in the border, riparian and coastal areas. While continuing to do our own things well, we will work more closely with other countries and regions in line with our opening-up strategy to establish a more equitable new type of international relations and a new order of global governance. Under the new thinking of opening up, the focus of our efforts will shift from promoting the free flow of factors in the world to establishing a community of shared future together with the people of other countries, and making the advanced Chinese culture leading world values.
[Abstract] During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period or even a longer period of time to come, China will enter a new phase of opening up featuring all-round, deep-going and high-level opening and synchronized internal and external opening. New trends and features of opening up have emerged, and more are expected in the future. Open development, which is part of the innovative, coordinated, green, open and sharing development vision that will guide China’s development for the next five years and more, aims to promote reform and development through a higher level of opening up and turn China from a regional power into a global power. China’s opening-up strategy, which used to focus on “bringing in”, will put equal emphasis on “bringing in” and “going global” by making good use of domestic and international markets, resources and rules to foster the new competitive edge of opening up. We will take the initiative to adapt to, align with and guide the setting of international trade and investment rules of a higher standard, rather than passively accept and fit in with international standards and rules. The “Belt and Road” initiative raised by Mr. Xi Jinping is a major contribution China has made to the building of an open world. China will work with other countries and regions in building a community of shared interests, responsibility and future.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE held the 85th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of “Analysis of Economic Situation in the First Half of the Year”. Speakers at the meeting indicated that although the global economy is facing many uncertainties, some new bright spots have emerged. For example, China remains the locomotive of global economic growth; Asia is becoming the gravity of global economic growth; and the global economy is entering an era of innovation-driven development. In the first half of the year, inflation pressure of China’s economy has eased, and more attention needs to be paid to the possibility of deflation. The following is suggested: first, pay close attention to the implications of Britain’s exit from the EU and speed up the supply-side structural reform; second, make better use of the policy tool of lowering deposit reserve ratio; third, adopt a prudent monetary policy and work out countermeasures for a possible economic downturn; and fourth, take multi-pronged measures to ensure price stability.
[Abstract] Before the international financial crisis, Turkey’s economy had maintained a high-speed growth for a long period of time. However, in a matter of only a few years, what used to be a much envied country has fallen into a mire of disputes and unrests. Worsening economic situation has exacerbated domestic problems, and strained relations with neighboring countries have seriously undermined the external environment for Turkey’s economic and social development. Beset with troubles at home and abroad, Turkey is facing a much more complicated situation.
【Abstract】Promoting the construction of "Healthy China" is the important measures to advance the reform of medical and health system and the inevitable demand to realize the grand Two Centenary Goals. With the central government’s finance or the centralized lottery welfare fund as the guide, the national fitness sports development fund can be set up with social capital. This is helpful to guide social capital to invest into sports fitness, to promote structural reform of the supply side in the sports industry, to improve the overall fitness level and to advance people’s health threshold .
【Abstract】Recently, CCIEE held the 84th Monthly Economic Talk themed at “New Progress in Establishing the New System of Open Economy”. All the participants agree that China is facing some new situations such as slowdown of global economic growth, decline of trade growth and accelerated global economic pattern evolution when China is trying to build its own new system of open economy. Therefore, we are in urgent need to seek new breakthrough in service trade, free trade zone development, two-way financial openness, system and mechanism reform and other areas so as to establish the new system of the resource allocation in accordance with open economy. We also need to overall coordinate the interactive relationship between opening up and reform, opening up and development to realize the sound development of open economy.
【Abstract】Britain’s exit from the EU or “Brexit” will have a significant economic impact. To assess such impact will be a big challenge, not only because of the complexity of the economic relations between the UK and other EU member states, but also the multiple possible patterns of connections the UK may have with the EU after its exit, such as the Norway model, Swiss model and the WTO model. Quite a number of research institutes and scholars have analyzed the economic consequences of a Brexit, and generally agreed that UK’s economy will suffer if it votes to leave, and may fall into recession in a more pessimistic scenario. We have seen the recent reactions of the international market, which will prompt the UK and EU to make prudent decisions to minimize the economic impact of Britain’s exit.
【Abstract】Recently, the Brexit referendum has become an international hot topic. The referendum is the result of several factors at work, and its chance of getting a yes vote is increasing. The world opinion is not in favor of Britain’s leaving the EU, as it has become a destabilizing factor in the international economic and financial markets. Research has found that the vote has mirrored the discrepancies between the UK and EU in the understanding of the goals and rules of European integration, and the strong public support for a Brexit has reflected the polarization of the British society. Further research shows that if Britain eventually leaves the EU, it may spur regional separatism in the country, posing a grave challenge to the political system currently in practice in the UK.
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