[Abstract]On January 24, 2017, CCIEE Postdoctoral Station convened the 20th Expert Seminar on “Important Global Affairs”. Gu Yuanxiang, Academician of CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) gave a systematic analysis of the feasibility and anticipated effect of US President Trump’s economic policies. He pointed out that trump’s domestic and foreign economic policies are well-targeted, radical, self-serving and confusing. Consequently, the implementation of those policies will be very difficult because they will be encumbered by different parties, both domestically and internationally. We should not put too much expectation of Trump, but to prepare ourselves to handle rationally the China-US relations in the Trump era.
[Abstract]At her speech delivered at the World Economic Forum Annual Winter Meeting, Teresa May, the UK’s Prime Minister, expressed Britain’s stance of a “Hard Brexit”, saying that the British government seeks to withdraw from the EU at minimum costs. A “Hard Brexit” will surely reduce uncertainties and receive a positive market response, nonetheless, the EU officials are generally rather negative about UK’s withdrawal plan. The prospect of a “Hard Brexit” is not clear and a number of factors could affect the implementation of a “Hard Brexit”, such as the EU’s attitude, the technical problem of the Brexit, and the economic trend in the UK.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held the 91st Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Analysis of Chinese and World Economy: 2016 and 2017. The participating experts said that the world economy is likely to experience several turning points in 2017 while facing more uncertainties. China’s economy will continue the two trends of “slow to steady” and “steady to growth”. The macroeconomic policies will stress on achieving growth while maintaining economic stability. The government will promote economic works based on the main thread of supply-side structural reform. Overall, we are facing more opportunities than challenges.
[Abstract]Driving by the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the US white house recently released the report of “Ensuring US Long-term Leadership in the Semiconductor Industry”. The report believes that China’s policies for its semiconductor industry threaten the US and in response to that, the US government should adopt three foreign policies. Firstly, to increase the policy transparency of global advanced technology. Secondly, to reshape the application of national security tools and use them as a response to China’ industrial policies. Lastly, by cooperating with allies, the US can strengthen global export control and ensure safe foreign investment to sustain US long-term leadership in semiconductor industry.
[Abstract]The US president–elect Donald Trump is about to take office soon and consequently, the US economy will be full of uncertainties due to Trump’s changeable personal style and his wide range of policy choices. In summary, there are three scenarios. Firstly, with the implementation of neoliberalism and trade protectionism, the US will become an ideal pool of global wealth. Secondly, the US will start a global tax-reduction war and trade war and the US economy slides into the abyss. The last scenario is that Trump will change his narrow mind, shoulder the responsibility of a big nation and cooperate with other nations to maximize US economic interest. The development of the US economy entirely depends on Trumps’ choice. We should warn trump not to reply on the first and second scenarios, instead, he should work with other countries to realize the third scenario because this will be his best choice.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held an Expert Seminar to discuss the current international situation and how can China and France conduct cooperation in third market. The experts agreed on that Trump’s victory in the presidential election has brought new uncertainties to the global pattern. To meet the new challenges, we should strengthen cooperation with the EU and hence to balance America’s global strategy. In relation to China-France cooperation in third market, the two countries should use their respective advantages, planning and guidance to erase concerns of African nations and facilitate pragmatic cooperation in key countries and fields. China-France cooperation in third market should coordinate with the Belt and Road initiative, focus on such key fields as infrastructure, industrial cooperation, services, finance, next generation of international trade and global governance. Furthermore, the two nations should put emphasis on nations like Madagascar, Guinea and Cameron.
[Abstract]At the third sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: Nurturing New Growth Momentum through Reform and Innovation”, experts believed that the senior managers of SOEs (Stated-owned Enterprises) should have a sense of responsibility in the reform of SOEs. Some managers are unwilling to reform because they are afraid of being accused of losing state-owned assets, but this will make more loss to SOEs. They should use the reform of mixed ownership as a breakthrough for SOEs reform. In terms of financial reform, diversified financial institutions should be founded to encourage competition in the financial market. Meanwhile, the authorities should continue to deepen reform of multi-level capital market and prevent hidden financial risks
[Abstract]At the second sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: The Key Points and Main Measures to Overcome Shortcomings”, the participating experts pointed out that the food supply is still highly dependent on import. In the aspect of manufacturing, there are several shortcomings in the following areas, such as the supply of high-end products, innovation ability, brand and quality, energy saving and environment protection, industrial leaders and human resource. For services industry, improvements need to be made in public service, high-end service and infrastructure. In terms of social security, the weakest point is the defective pension system. To overcome the shortcomings mentioned above, the authorities should implement properly the five development concepts, deepen mechanism reform, give the government a better role to play, and facilitate restructuring of industry and product.
[Abstract]At the first sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: The Key Points and Main Measures to cut Excess Capacity, Destock, Deleverage and Lower Costs”, the participating experts pointed out that the authorities should promote healthy development of the real estate industry, revitalize real economy, cut excess capacity in steel and other industries and reduce reasonably the leverage level.
[Abstract]At the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, the participating experts noted that the world economy remains in the doldrums, investment and trade growth are flabby and the momentum for traditional globalization is insufficient. Recently, China’s foreign trade is stable and moving in a positive direction and the Belt and Road initiative has brought new momentum to global economic growth. To meet the new challenges, China should remain its strategic focus, continue to deepen China-US cooperation, promote new rules of globalization and the construction of the Belt and Road continuously.
[Abstract]At the opening ceremony and main forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, the participating experts pointed out that China’s economy was stable and moving in a positive direction in 2016. In 2017, the economic tasks will focus on the deepening of supply-side structural reform and promoting steady and healthy development. Therefore, the authorities should accurately understand the relationship between supply and demand, “stabilization” and “progress”, “progress” and “soundness”. Furthermore, they should cut excess capacity, destock and deleverage, lower costs and overcome shortcomings. Lastly, they should ensure smooth policy implementation, understand the new changes in economic development and international economic and financial situation.
[Abstract]The “Low Carbon+”strategy is actually a strategy for the innovation of development model. As a big developing country, the implementation of the “Low Carbon+” strategy is an important measure for China. Meanwhile, this is also a necessary path China must go through to alleviate its pressure from environment and energy. The core of the “Low Carbon+” is low carbon, while “+” represents the key fields, such as industry, agriculture, architecture, transportation, energy, finance and consumption.
[Abstract]At present, the military-civilian integration is transforming from preliminary integration to deep integration and many problems emerged during this transition. For instance, people’s mentality is unable to keep pace with the transition, the top-level design and management are missing, policies and regulations are lag behind and the implementation is inadequate. We should respond actively to the request of implementing military-civilian integration development strategy, made by the General Secretary of China’s Communist Party Xi Jinping, be problem-oriented, come up with ideas and measures and have a strong sense of responsibility. Furthermore, we should make sure that the concept and requirement of the military-civilian integration run through the entire process of economic development and national defense construction. Lastly, we should facilitate military-civilian integration in a wider range, deeper and higher level, and quickly form a comprehensive, multi-fields and highly efficient development pattern.
[Abstract]China has started a new round of debt-to-equity since October 2016, hoping to reduce the rising debt level of companies through marketization. Nonetheless, the business transformation of commercial banks, rising debt of companies, increasing bad loans and further marketization of business environment have brought commercial banks different types of risks in the new round of debt-to-equity. For example, a slowing economic growth may appear, possible mistakes made by management as well as financial turmoil. To prevent these risks, the authorities should create a “firewall” and adopt other measures.
[Abstract] The development of “Three Rural (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers)” is still faced with difficulties. For example, the volatility of agricultural products has a considerable impact on price stability, the existing financial instruments have limited effect on resolving farmers’ problem in financing, and agriculture remains at the low end of the supply chain, which makes it very hard for farmers to increase their income. One solution to those problems is the consumption trust for agricultural products, which uses internet technology and the recommendation of financial institutions to eliminate information asymmetry and trust problem between farmers and their clients. This kind of trust helps farmers to reduce blind production, increase credit extension, guarantee the safety of agricultural products, raise farmers’ income and promote agricultural modernization. Therefore, we should support this trust with development finance, tax incentives and other measures, spread the model of consumption trust for agricultural products and use it to resolve the bottleneck problems associated with the three rural issues.
【Abstract】 Recently, CCIEE held the 90th Monthly Economic Talk on how to solve the “off real to virtual” problem in China’s economic development. Speakers had an in-depth analysis of the symptoms and causes of the problem and discussed ways to solve it. They pointed out that the root of the problem lies in the real economy’s falling rate of returns and the virtual economy’s continued rise of returns. In China’s case, it should deal with the problem by reducing macro tax burden, reforming the finance and tax system, creating new financial instruments and deepening reforms in the monopoly sectors.
【Abstract】 Based on the global trend of economic thoughts and Trump’s actions before and after the presidential election, Trump’s economic governance philosophy can be summarized as “one focus, two isms and three directions”. The focus is to improve employment and welfare of the common people. The two isms are the implementation of the “new” liberalism at home and the “new” protectionism in the international arena. When it comes to global economic governance, he will move in three directions: first, promote new rules through a single bilateral arrangement or a number of small-group multilateral arrangements instead of general multilateral arrangements; second, start a trade war by accusing China of manipulating the exchange rate; and third, give up climate commitments as the first step to reduce the US’ global responsibility as much as possible.
【Abstract】 Recently, CCIEE held the 89th Monthly Economic Talk on the topic of “China-US Relationship in the Future -- Challenges and Opportunities”. Participants pointed out that the election of Trump as president of the United States has reflected many problems in the US society including deglobalization and serious social divides. Trump announced that he will list China as a currency manipulator and raise tariffs. This and other policies he will take will bring many uncertainties into China-US relations. However, it is believed that the direction of China-US cooperation will remain unchanged. Looking ahead, the two countries need to reduce strategic distrust, increase mutual trust, strengthen communications and coordination, and increase policy efficiency. They also need to enhance exchanges and cooperation and bring people closer together. Trump needs to realize a change of role to break down isolationism, exclusionism, populism and interventionism, etc.
【Abstract】Recently, the research team on China-EU economic and trade relations in the next decade organized an experts’ meeting, at which experts from NDRC, Ministry of Commerce, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations held discussions on Brexit. They believed that Brexit has added uncertainties to EU’s future and made it more prone to division. With irrational nationalism gaining strength in Europe, the EU is stepping up establishment of the external border system and independent defense system. Meanwhile, there is a huge scope for China’s financial cooperation with the UK. In promoting the internationalization of yuan, we need to take differentiated strategies and tactics with the UK and the EU. Moreover, the momentum for China-EU and China-UK cooperation in the third-party markets is building up.
【Abstract】Since the People’s Bank of China’s announcement on 11 August 2015 to improve the central parity rate of yuan against the US dollar, yuan has been depreciating. This is because mounting downward pressure on China’s economy, slump in foreign trade, rapid growth in overseas investment and consumption, increased capital outflow pressure, expectation of interest rate hike in the US and some political signals sent out by Trump have brought pressure on the RMB. In response, we need to take a holistic approach and promote the development of the real economy by taking effective measures on both the supply and demand sides and carrying out reform in the financial system. It is also important to seize the opportunity presented by the yuan’s inclusion into the SDR to expand the use of yuan overseas, and use the “Belt and Road” initiative to guide outward investment to maintain the basic stability of yuan.
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