[Abstract] At the Seminar of “Analysis of China’s Economy in 2017”, held by the Economic Research Department of CCIEE, experts pointed out that China will have no problem in realizing its goal of economic growth this year due to various positive factors. However, attentions should be paid to the systematic and regional risks which may be triggered by debt, real estate and other factors. The focus of current economic policies is adjustment. In terms of the adjustment of macro policy, it should maintain stability and reflects the flexibility and pertinence as well as work in concert with the changes of China’s economic performance.
[Abstract] At the 94th Monthly Economic Talk “Analysis of China’s Economy in the First Quarter of 2017”, held by CCIEE, experts noted that there will be a lack of growth momentum in international economy in the medium and long-term, despite the recent positive changes. In the first quarter, China’s economy was stable and moving towards a positive direction, nonetheless, several problems occurred. For example, the liquidity is tight, the vitality of private companies has not been fully released, and the development of the real estate remains uncertain. In the near future, China’s economy will decline, but it should have no problem to achieve an annual growth rate of above 6.5%. Relevant government departments should continue to seek for stable economic growth and policies, including effective and stable monetary policy, promote supply-side structural reform while preventing financial risks.
[Abstract] At the 93rd CCIEE Monthly Economic Talk Interpretation of the ‘Two Sessions’ (Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and National People's Congress), the participating experts pointed out that China’s current economy has been stabilized, the uncertainties associated with the international environment has been reduced and the international economic performance has started to pick up. The government work report reflects fully the new theories of governance of the central party committee, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. In addition, the report demonstrates the spirit and implementation of the rule of law, makes deployment for ecological protection, urbanization, deleveraging, destocking, job security and other aspects. The report proposed to facilitate destocking through reform and lead development through innovation.
[Abstract] Economic globalization is an irreversible objective process and it can neither be reversed nor changed according to people’s will. The new globalization has the following five features. Firstly, the coexistence of real and virtual economy has become the trend of the new globalization. Secondly, the new economy is closely linked with the internet and net of thing. Thirdly, the industrial chain, supply chain, service chain, capital chain and value chain have become the economic links of the new globalization. Fourthly, some new economic participants of the cross-border development will appear, such as the integrated system of big data, platform-based economy, integrated market which reflects the individual sovereignty awareness of the consumers and a large number of entrepreneurs who are keen to prove their personal value. Lastly, the e-international trade will become the form of the new globalization.
[Abstract] At the 92nd CCIEE Monthly Economic Talk “Reform of Finance and Taxation in 2017”, the participating experts evaluated the progress and outcome of China’s reform of finance and taxation over recent years. Furthermore, they also pointed out the key points and direction of China’s finance and taxation reform in the future. By comparing the tax burden in the US and China, the experts also made several proposals for the direction of taxation reform.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, Wang Wen, Executive President of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, expressed that Trump has three “unfinished tasks”. In China, there are three “underestimations” and three “Overestimations” of Trump. Actually, we should not be panic and maintain our strategic focus as well as taking appropriate measures.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, Lv Xiang, Researcher of the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that most of the American failed to predict the result of the US presidential election due to the problem with information source. The internal party differentiation can be attributed to the failure of democratic party in the election. The “Koch Brother” organization in the republican party should be watched closely. Generally, Trump’s policies can be summarized as “Supply-side unleash”.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, the participants agreed on that the US has officially entered into the “Trump era” and the core of Trump’s policies is America first. Jin Canrong, Professor of Renmin University believes that Trump will not abandon the US-dominated globalization and the essence of it is to let the US lead the restructuring of global order and interest redistribution. In the future, the US might adopt five major policies to deal with China and the New Deal pursued by Trump in his first 100 days is facing great uncertainties.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project Research of China-US Issues, Zhou Shijian, Professor of Tsinghua University pointed out that in the aspects of tax cut, military enhancement, media relationship, personnel appointment and ruling style, Trump is precisely the same with the formal US President Reagan. Therefore, it is worthwhile to re-study the governance of Reagan administration. In particular, attention should be paid to issues like US debt, exchange rate and China-US trade imbalance. China should maintain its strategic concentration and prepare itself for a possible trade war with the US. Having considered these factors, it is necessary to re-write the white paper on China-US Economic and Trade Relations.
[Abstract]Modern western think tanks have strong political flavor and to some extent, they are the combination of knowledge and political parties, or knowledge and power. The new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics should have politics as a pre-condition if they want healthy development. International experience shows that being able to remain independent is essential for the quality and development of think tanks and we should combine politics and independent scientific research. In order to create a top-level think tank, we need to gather and nurture elites who have a good sense of responsibility and international competitiveness.
[Abstract]On January 24, 2017, CCIEE Postdoctoral Station convened the 20th Expert Seminar on “Important Global Affairs”. Gu Yuanxiang, Academician of CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) gave a systematic analysis of the feasibility and anticipated effect of US President Trump’s economic policies. He pointed out that trump’s domestic and foreign economic policies are well-targeted, radical, self-serving and confusing. Consequently, the implementation of those policies will be very difficult because they will be encumbered by different parties, both domestically and internationally. We should not put too much expectation of Trump, but to prepare ourselves to handle rationally the China-US relations in the Trump era.
[Abstract]At her speech delivered at the World Economic Forum Annual Winter Meeting, Teresa May, the UK’s Prime Minister, expressed Britain’s stance of a “Hard Brexit”, saying that the British government seeks to withdraw from the EU at minimum costs. A “Hard Brexit” will surely reduce uncertainties and receive a positive market response, nonetheless, the EU officials are generally rather negative about UK’s withdrawal plan. The prospect of a “Hard Brexit” is not clear and a number of factors could affect the implementation of a “Hard Brexit”, such as the EU’s attitude, the technical problem of the Brexit, and the economic trend in the UK.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held the 91st Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Analysis of Chinese and World Economy: 2016 and 2017. The participating experts said that the world economy is likely to experience several turning points in 2017 while facing more uncertainties. China’s economy will continue the two trends of “slow to steady” and “steady to growth”. The macroeconomic policies will stress on achieving growth while maintaining economic stability. The government will promote economic works based on the main thread of supply-side structural reform. Overall, we are facing more opportunities than challenges.
[Abstract]Driving by the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the US white house recently released the report of “Ensuring US Long-term Leadership in the Semiconductor Industry”. The report believes that China’s policies for its semiconductor industry threaten the US and in response to that, the US government should adopt three foreign policies. Firstly, to increase the policy transparency of global advanced technology. Secondly, to reshape the application of national security tools and use them as a response to China’ industrial policies. Lastly, by cooperating with allies, the US can strengthen global export control and ensure safe foreign investment to sustain US long-term leadership in semiconductor industry.
[Abstract]The US president–elect Donald Trump is about to take office soon and consequently, the US economy will be full of uncertainties due to Trump’s changeable personal style and his wide range of policy choices. In summary, there are three scenarios. Firstly, with the implementation of neoliberalism and trade protectionism, the US will become an ideal pool of global wealth. Secondly, the US will start a global tax-reduction war and trade war and the US economy slides into the abyss. The last scenario is that Trump will change his narrow mind, shoulder the responsibility of a big nation and cooperate with other nations to maximize US economic interest. The development of the US economy entirely depends on Trumps’ choice. We should warn trump not to reply on the first and second scenarios, instead, he should work with other countries to realize the third scenario because this will be his best choice.
[Abstract]Recently, CCIEE held an Expert Seminar to discuss the current international situation and how can China and France conduct cooperation in third market. The experts agreed on that Trump’s victory in the presidential election has brought new uncertainties to the global pattern. To meet the new challenges, we should strengthen cooperation with the EU and hence to balance America’s global strategy. In relation to China-France cooperation in third market, the two countries should use their respective advantages, planning and guidance to erase concerns of African nations and facilitate pragmatic cooperation in key countries and fields. China-France cooperation in third market should coordinate with the Belt and Road initiative, focus on such key fields as infrastructure, industrial cooperation, services, finance, next generation of international trade and global governance. Furthermore, the two nations should put emphasis on nations like Madagascar, Guinea and Cameron.
[Abstract]At the third sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: Nurturing New Growth Momentum through Reform and Innovation”, experts believed that the senior managers of SOEs (Stated-owned Enterprises) should have a sense of responsibility in the reform of SOEs. Some managers are unwilling to reform because they are afraid of being accused of losing state-owned assets, but this will make more loss to SOEs. They should use the reform of mixed ownership as a breakthrough for SOEs reform. In terms of financial reform, diversified financial institutions should be founded to encourage competition in the financial market. Meanwhile, the authorities should continue to deepen reform of multi-level capital market and prevent hidden financial risks
[Abstract]At the second sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: The Key Points and Main Measures to Overcome Shortcomings”, the participating experts pointed out that the food supply is still highly dependent on import. In the aspect of manufacturing, there are several shortcomings in the following areas, such as the supply of high-end products, innovation ability, brand and quality, energy saving and environment protection, industrial leaders and human resource. For services industry, improvements need to be made in public service, high-end service and infrastructure. In terms of social security, the weakest point is the defective pension system. To overcome the shortcomings mentioned above, the authorities should implement properly the five development concepts, deepen mechanism reform, give the government a better role to play, and facilitate restructuring of industry and product.
[Abstract]At the first sub-forum of the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, “Deepening Supply-Side Reform: The Key Points and Main Measures to cut Excess Capacity, Destock, Deleverage and Lower Costs”, the participating experts pointed out that the authorities should promote healthy development of the real estate industry, revitalize real economy, cut excess capacity in steel and other industries and reduce reasonably the leverage level.
[Abstract]At the 2016-2017 Annual Meeting of China’s Economy, the participating experts noted that the world economy remains in the doldrums, investment and trade growth are flabby and the momentum for traditional globalization is insufficient. Recently, China’s foreign trade is stable and moving in a positive direction and the Belt and Road initiative has brought new momentum to global economic growth. To meet the new challenges, China should remain its strategic focus, continue to deepen China-US cooperation, promote new rules of globalization and the construction of the Belt and Road continuously.
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