[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE hold the 97th Monthly Economic Talk under the theme of Analysis of China’ Economy in the First Half of 2017. The speakers pointed out that the world economy has shown positive sign and is expected to experience the fastest growth, compared with the past few years. In the first half of 2017, China has further optimized its economic structure, achieved stable fiscal and financial performance, and obtained a better-than-expected economic growth of 6.9%. In the second half, the economy will continue to grow while maintaining its stability and the annual GDP growth will be no less than 6.7%. The authorities should make the best use of the favorite external environment, adapt to the New Normal of China’s economy, and expand the aggregate demand moderately. Furthermore, they should focus on the supply-side structural reform and achieve new breakthroughs in key areas, continue with the opening and reform policy as well as promote the cooperation of the belt and road initiative so as to form an open world economic system.
[Abstract] On June 14th, 2017, the Forum in Celebration of the 20th Anniversary of Hong Kong’s Return to the Motherland was held at Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center, under the theme of “China’s Outward Investment trends and Hong Kong’s Role”. Leung Chun-ying, Chief Executive of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, addressed the forum. Tian Guoli, Board Chairman of Bank of China, which is also the organizer of the forum, and five other speakers from the mainland, Hong Kong, Philippine government and think tank delivered their speeches respectively at the main forum. Wang Chunzheng, Director of CCIEE Consulting Committee, invited by the Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Association, gave his speech at the main forum. This paper is a summary of his speech.
[Abstract]At the 96th Monthly Economic Talk “Research Findings Release of City Cluster Planning and Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area”, held by CCIEE recently, the participants believe that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (the greater bay area) has a great foundation, high level of economic efficiency and huge potential for development. It is estimated that the greater bay area will overtake Tokyo and New York bay area to become the bay area with the world’s largest GDP by 2030. A vital task of the construction of the bay area is to make a good plan and realize innovative and coordinated development through integration to avoid industrial duplication and solve the land’s bottleneck problems through the enclave economic model.
[Abstract] Innovating the BRICS mode will help the BRICS nations to strengthen cooperation with other emerging economies, developing countries and international organizations. Furthermore, this will help them to build a wider partnership, enlarge their circle of friends and make the BRICS cooperation mechanism the most influential platform for south-south cooperation. In the next decade, BRICS should promote the mode of “BRICS+ new members” gradually, foster the mode of “BRICS+ regions” comprehensively, and be selective when advancing the mode of “BRICS+ international organization”, so as to inject new impetus to the cooperation and development of BRICS nations.
[Abstract] Recently, CCIEE held the 95th Monthly Economic Talk with the theme of policy changes of Trump administration and how should China respond to them? The participants interpreted the changes in foreign and economic policies since US president Trump took office. They pointed out that despite the positive development of the China-US relations, the two nations also face great challenges. Therefore, the two countries should seize opportunities to further develop economic and trade relations, and strengthen cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, manufacturing and high-tech. At the same time, they should well prepare themselves for any possible economic and trade frictions as well as controversial topics such as the depreciation of RMB.
[Abstract] How to support the building of the Belt and Road is an important topic of the 2017 China’s International Big Data Expo, held recently in the city of Gui Yang, China. The participants believe that big data has brought a great deal of opportunities for the Belt and Road. The advantages of big data and cloud service will provide relevant countries with the smart-city solution and bespoken manufacturing plan, and offer inclusive financial services to small and micro enterprises. All these measures will also help China to reduce its services trade deficit effectively. In order to promote information-sharing and help relevant countries with their integration of digital and real economies, China should establish an information connectivity mechanism for countries along the belt and road to ensure cross-border information flow, and build a platform for information exchange.
[Abstract] Wu Den-yih’s victory in the party chairman election of the Kuomintang (KMT) shows that the pan-blue is in line with the political election trend in Taiwan province. The positive influence of the two-strait relations is expected to shrink after the election. Whether or not the KMT will prevail over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the future remains uncertain. Undoubtedly, KMT will form great pressure on the DPP after its adjustment. If the DPP continues to manipulate the allegation of Taiwan’s independence, the risks associated with the cross-strait relations will increase. Whether KMT is able to ensure that the cross-strait relations will be moving in a positive direction, deepen the “1992 consensus” and oppose the allegation of Taiwan’s independence firmly, need further observation.
[Abstract] At the parallel roundtable discussions of the 5th Global Think Tank Summit, participants had in-depth discussions on such issues as the new situation of globalization, global sustainable development, the Belt and Road, the connectivity of national strategies, regional and global security. They noted that the trend of globalization is irreversible, the building of the Belt and Road has brought new positive energy for global development and governance. Countries around the world should focus on regional and global security risk, lead the building of the Belt and Road and global sustainable development with innovation and green development. As for think tanks, they should play a bigger role in policies coordination and offer recommendations on promoting global sustainable development.
[Abstract] At the 5th Global Think Tank Summit, recently held in Beijing, participants believe that the inverse of globalization has emerged around the world. Despite the weak global economic recovery, globalization remains to be the trend of global development and it brings both significant challenges and opportunities. All nations should work together to promote trade and investment facilitation, strengthen cooperation in different fields, push forward global development and embrace a better globalization era by reforming global governance. They also gave positive feedback on the role played by think tanks in globalization.
[Abstract] The Chinese and foreign participants of the Thematic Session on Think Tank Exchanges of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, agreed on that the Belt and Road Initiative is a completely new way and mode of international cooperation, a remarkable milestone and an effective solution to promote new globalization. Furthermore, they hope that the initiative can be further opened to more nations and think tanks should play a positive and leading role in the building of the Belt and Road.
[Abstract] The Belt and Road Initiative, the global strategy of China’s peace and development and the harmonious and win-win global development have opened a new chapter for China’s development. At the same time, China is also faced with great challenges, for instance, it needs to face the unprecedented challenges of global governance, cope with the lack of momentum of global economic and trade, improve the new concept and system of global governance. Therefore, China should make the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation a regular event, establish an international cooperation committee and risk prevention mechanism. Furthermore, to connect the Belt and Road with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and release their potential, and make the coordinated plan for the two core regions of the initiative, Xinjiang and Fujian. Finally, China should promote coordinated development of the Yellow River Bay region and gives the guiding role of culture into play.
[Abstract] At the Seminar of “Analysis of China’s Economy in 2017”, held by the Economic Research Department of CCIEE, experts pointed out that China will have no problem in realizing its goal of economic growth this year due to various positive factors. However, attentions should be paid to the systematic and regional risks which may be triggered by debt, real estate and other factors. The focus of current economic policies is adjustment. In terms of the adjustment of macro policy, it should maintain stability and reflects the flexibility and pertinence as well as work in concert with the changes of China’s economic performance.
[Abstract] At the 94th Monthly Economic Talk “Analysis of China’s Economy in the First Quarter of 2017”, held by CCIEE, experts noted that there will be a lack of growth momentum in international economy in the medium and long-term, despite the recent positive changes. In the first quarter, China’s economy was stable and moving towards a positive direction, nonetheless, several problems occurred. For example, the liquidity is tight, the vitality of private companies has not been fully released, and the development of the real estate remains uncertain. In the near future, China’s economy will decline, but it should have no problem to achieve an annual growth rate of above 6.5%. Relevant government departments should continue to seek for stable economic growth and policies, including effective and stable monetary policy, promote supply-side structural reform while preventing financial risks.
[Abstract] At the 93rd CCIEE Monthly Economic Talk Interpretation of the ‘Two Sessions’ (Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and National People's Congress), the participating experts pointed out that China’s current economy has been stabilized, the uncertainties associated with the international environment has been reduced and the international economic performance has started to pick up. The government work report reflects fully the new theories of governance of the central party committee, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. In addition, the report demonstrates the spirit and implementation of the rule of law, makes deployment for ecological protection, urbanization, deleveraging, destocking, job security and other aspects. The report proposed to facilitate destocking through reform and lead development through innovation.
[Abstract] Economic globalization is an irreversible objective process and it can neither be reversed nor changed according to people’s will. The new globalization has the following five features. Firstly, the coexistence of real and virtual economy has become the trend of the new globalization. Secondly, the new economy is closely linked with the internet and net of thing. Thirdly, the industrial chain, supply chain, service chain, capital chain and value chain have become the economic links of the new globalization. Fourthly, some new economic participants of the cross-border development will appear, such as the integrated system of big data, platform-based economy, integrated market which reflects the individual sovereignty awareness of the consumers and a large number of entrepreneurs who are keen to prove their personal value. Lastly, the e-international trade will become the form of the new globalization.
[Abstract] At the 92nd CCIEE Monthly Economic Talk “Reform of Finance and Taxation in 2017”, the participating experts evaluated the progress and outcome of China’s reform of finance and taxation over recent years. Furthermore, they also pointed out the key points and direction of China’s finance and taxation reform in the future. By comparing the tax burden in the US and China, the experts also made several proposals for the direction of taxation reform.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, Wang Wen, Executive President of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, expressed that Trump has three “unfinished tasks”. In China, there are three “underestimations” and three “Overestimations” of Trump. Actually, we should not be panic and maintain our strategic focus as well as taking appropriate measures.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, Lv Xiang, Researcher of the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that most of the American failed to predict the result of the US presidential election due to the problem with information source. The internal party differentiation can be attributed to the failure of democratic party in the election. The “Koch Brother” organization in the republican party should be watched closely. Generally, Trump’s policies can be summarized as “Supply-side unleash”.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project “Research of China-US Issues”, the participants agreed on that the US has officially entered into the “Trump era” and the core of Trump’s policies is America first. Jin Canrong, Professor of Renmin University believes that Trump will not abandon the US-dominated globalization and the essence of it is to let the US lead the restructuring of global order and interest redistribution. In the future, the US might adopt five major policies to deal with China and the New Deal pursued by Trump in his first 100 days is facing great uncertainties.
[Abstract] At the internal seminar: Changes in China-US Relations after Trump Took Office, organized by the CCIEE research team of the project Research of China-US Issues, Zhou Shijian, Professor of Tsinghua University pointed out that in the aspects of tax cut, military enhancement, media relationship, personnel appointment and ruling style, Trump is precisely the same with the formal US President Reagan. Therefore, it is worthwhile to re-study the governance of Reagan administration. In particular, attention should be paid to issues like US debt, exchange rate and China-US trade imbalance. China should maintain its strategic concentration and prepare itself for a possible trade war with the US. Having considered these factors, it is necessary to re-write the white paper on China-US Economic and Trade Relations.
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