Wei Jianguo: Dual-circulation strategy becomes new road map of growth

By: GLOBAL TIMES   Date: Oct 27 2020

Wei Jianguo, Vice Chairman of CCIEE

As the world experiences a once-in-a-century shake-up caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the headwind of anti-globalization, the achievements of China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), its proposals for formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and China's long-term goals through 2035 are being closely watched.

This year marks several key milestones for China. It is the final year of the current 13th Five-Year Plan, and the eve of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC in 2021. Even as the pandemic deals a severe blow to the global economy, China has made strides in fulfilling its targets under the 13th Five-Year Plan, boosting confidence in a global economic recovery at a later stage.

The important meeting on macro policies will set the trajectory of China's social and economic development for the coming five years, and outline its vision for the next 15 years - something that will have a lingering impact on the whole world.

China has achieved great success in fighting the virus and resuming production, with major indicators including GDP growth and foreign trade data turning positive. China's foreign trade will continue to exceed last year's levels, and it is likely to grow by double digits. 

China will attract more foreign investments in 2020 than last year and will become one of the world's most prolific destinations in this regard. China's outbound investment, especially investment in the Belt and Road economies, emerging countries, African countries, and Latin American countries, are expected to see a marked growth too.

China's domestic consumption, which returned to positive growth in August, will continue to recover in the fourth quarter and pick up pace at the end of the year. Factors such as new consumption patterns and government stimulus measures will help China become the world's largest consumer country in 2020. China can complete the original plan of 41 trillion yuan($6 trillion) in domestic consumption which may even surge to 45 trillion yuan in 2020.

This robust growth in consumption won't just meet the targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan, but is a policy focus of the coming five years in the "dual circulation" strategy. 

China's more domestic-focused development pattern is not a stopgap measure to deal with the current pandemic, but also a road map for China's new economy development trajectory for the next 20 to 30 years.

The dual-circulation plan is expected to help China become a stable force in global economy that emerges in a new, inclusive, balanced, win-win globalization post-pandemic period. Therefore, the dual-circulation strategy will be a key focus of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, especially for the next year.

After the pandemic, China will rely less on the world, while the world is likely to rely more on China's supply. For a very long time to come, China's contribution to the world will be much greater than it is now. Its contribution will not only be greater in the realms of economy and trade, but also in global governance, including WTO reform, regional development, RCEP negotiation and the promotion of the establishment of China-Japan-Korea free trade zones. 

In terms of establishing a new, open, balanced, inclusive, and win-win form of globalization, China will contribute both wisdom and solutions.