CCIEE Holds the 139th “Monthly Economic Talk”

On April 16, 2021, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) held the 139th “Monthly Economic Talk” online under the theme of “Analysis of the Economic Performance in the First Quarter”. The meeting was presided over by Zhang Xiaoqiang, Executive Vice Chairman and Director of the CCIEE Executive Board. Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of CCIEE and Director of the CCIEE Academic Committee, Chen Wenling, Deputy Director of the CCIEE Executive Board and Chief Economist of CCIEE, and Hua Changchun, Chief Economist of the Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, delivered their speeches respectively.

Wang Yiming pointed out that China’s economy has continued to recover since the beginning of this year but certain risks and challenges from home and abroad remain, including the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainties in global economic recovery, new shocks caused by policy adjustments of major economies, global inflation, rising debt risk, the challenges facing small and medium enterprises and employment pressure. Looking ahead, the economic growth will slow down and the foundation for sustained economic recovery needs to be consolidated. In order to achieve stable economic development, we need to seek progress while maintaining the stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies. We must adhere to the general tone of reasonably grasping the intensity and pace of policy adjustments, and focus on inter-cyclical balance. Apart from dealing with short-term problems, we must also leave enough policy room for dealing with future uncertainties, increase policy support for small and micro enterprises, promote the recovery of consumption and service industries, strengthen risk monitoring, continue to promote reforms, especially the reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors, and further release the potential for economic growth.

Chen Wenling believes that China’s economy continued to recover steadily in the first quarter, which will play a positive role in driving the world economic recovery. The global economic outlook has improved but the recovery still faces great uncertainties. Countries should adjust their responses timely according to the development of the pandemic and economic recovery, as well as the characteristics of their economic structure. China can make great contribution to promote world economic recovery and bring global governance back to the right track.

Hua Changchun said that the growth of the added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries was significantly higher than that of other industries in the first quarter. China’s economy is expected to continue its steady recovery throughout the year and the internal dynamics will continue to increase. However, we must pay more attention to issues such as inflation risks caused by rising prices of production materials and large financial debt. It is estimated that the average economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be 5.5%, and the average growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to remain at 5% and 5.5%.

After the speeches, the experts answered various questions from the audience. Researchers from CCIEE, representatives from CCIEE member units, research institutions, enterprises and media participated in the online conference.