CCIEE Holds the 136th “Monthly Economic Talk”

On January 19, 2021, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) held the 136th “Monthly Economic Talk” online, under the theme “Review of the Economy in 2020 and Prospects for 2021”. The meeting was chaired by Zhang Dawei, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of CCIEE. Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman and Director of the CCIEE Academic Committee, Chen Wenling, Chief Economist and Deputy Director of the CCIEE Executive Bureau, Zhang Liqun, Deputy Secretary-General of the Academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council and researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department, and Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Information Center, delivered speeches respectively.

Wang Yiming pointed out that the COVID-19 pandemic, the deep recession of the world economy, and the United States’ suppression brought great challenges to China last year. However, China’s total economic volume reached a new level of one hundred billion yuan, the economic indicators were better than expected, and significant progress was made in poverty reduction, science and technology. In the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, maintaining sustained and healthy economic development is particularly important. China must maintain stable and sustainable macroeconomic policies, improve the efficiency of fiscal funds, ensure employment stability, expand domestic demand, enhance the independence of the industrial and supply chain, and give full play to the leading role of reform.

Chen Wenling said that affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the world economy may continue to experience slow growth, low interest rates, low income, and low employment rate in the next five years. The impact may far exceed that of the 2008 international financial crisis. Currently, the world economy faces many problems such as negative growth, negative interest rates, negative returns, high debt, high leverage, and high risk. China has a flexible and resilient manufacturing capacity and a complete industrial supply chain system, and the “dual circulation” development pattern is the greatest hope for the recovery of the world economy.

Zhang Liqun pointed out that China’s economy has shown a trend of continuous recovery despite the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting strong resilience and abundant development momentum. In the next step, we should maintain a sound economic development and provide an important source for the world economy by further expanding domestic demand and accelerating the smooth flow of the domestic and international economic cycles.

Zhu Baoliang noted that China adopted policy measures in 2020 to ensure security in the six areas of employment, basic living needs, operations of market entities, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains, and the normal functioning of primary-level governments. Furthermore, it has implemented more effective macro adjustments and more active fiscal policies to re-launch production, stabilize employment and boost market confidence. If the pandemic resurges in 2021, China’s resident marginal propensity to consume will continue to decline, small, medium and micro enterprises will have difficulties in production recovery, apart from the financial risks. Thus, Macro and micro economic work must coordinate each other to avoid sharp changes in policy.

CCIEE Researchers, representatives from CCIEE member units, research institutions, enterprises and news media participated in the conference online.